The origins of American far-right politics are deeply connected to the system of racial discrimination that emerged in the South after the Civil War. The 'Ku Klux Klan (KKK)' was a far-right violent organization seeking to preserve white supremacy after the emancipation of Black people, and it had a significant impact on politics and society well into the early 20th century. Later, in the 1950s, McCarthyism institutionalized far-right political demagoguery under the banner of anti-communism.

In the 1970s and 1980s, under the 'Ronald Reagan' era, religious conservatism and free-market ideology fused to create a new form of far-right politics. Evangelical Christian groups pushed issues such as opposition to abortion and restrictions on LGBTQ rights to the forefront, expanding their political influence. This eventually became the foundation for Trump’s support base in the 21st century.

After the 2008 financial crisis, the collapse of the middle class and worsening inequality exploded into anger that “political elites and Wall Street have ruined America.” During this period, the 'Tea Party Movement' emerged, a far-right political movement centered on opposition to taxes, small government, and anti-Obama sentiment. Trump’s rise was the result of absorbing the energy of this movement.

Today, the Republican Party has transformed into a party that institutionalizes the far-right energy created by Trump and his followers, rather than remaining a traditional conservative party. The resignation crisis of 'House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (2023)' symbolized how much influence far-right lawmakers wield within the GOP.

The driving force of American far-right politics lies in the combination of 'demagoguery' and 'media networks'.

Since the mid-2010s, Facebook, Twitter (now X), and YouTube have become the most powerful platforms for spreading far-right discourse. The conspiracy theory known as 'Birtherism'—the claim that “Barack Obama is not a U.S. citizen”—became the stepping stone for Trump’s rise as a popular politician.

After the 2020 presidential election, the slogan '“Stop the Steal”' spread indiscriminately through conservative media and social networks. Trump’s lawyer 'Rudy Giuliani' and attorney 'Sidney Powell' repeatedly propagated baseless claims such as “Dominion voting machine manipulation,” organizing widespread public anger. In this process, the far-right online forum 'QAnon' amplified the narrative that “the deep state controls America,” rallying millions of followers.

This demagoguery exploded into the 'Capitol riot on January 6, 2021'. Protesters claimed they were “answering Trump’s call” and forcibly entered Congress. This event marked a historic turning point, showing how vulnerable American democracy is to the direct threat of far-right demagoguery.

The reason far-right politics has not disappeared lies in the structural problems embedded in American society.

First, 'demographic change'. The U.S. Census Bureau projects that around 2045, America will cease to be a “majority-white society.” As a result, some white conservatives cling to the “Great Replacement” theory, a far-right conspiracy that immigrants are replacing traditional Americans. In fact, the perpetrator of the 'Buffalo mass shooting in 2022' referenced this theory.

Second, 'economic inequality and the anger of the Rust Belt'. Traditional manufacturing cities such as Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland collapsed under globalization and automation. The white working class that lost jobs responded not to the Democratic Party but more strongly to the messages of far-right politicians who “blamed external enemies.” When Trump declared a trade war against China and Mexico, worker support in these regions skyrocketed.

Third, 'regional divides and cultural wars'. The divide between coastal cities and inland rural areas is not merely economic but deeply cultural. California and New York symbolize multicultural and progressive values, while states such as Texas, Oklahoma, and Alabama maintain conservative Christian traditions and gun culture. This divide became even sharper after the '2022 Supreme Court ruling overturning abortion rights (Dobbs v. Jackson)'. Progressive states protected abortion rights, while conservative states immediately banned them, thereby reinforcing far-right values.

Possible Scenarios for the Future of U.S. Politics

The future of American politics is uncertain, but it can be drawn along three main paths.

1. 'Institutionalization of Far-Right Politics'

If Trump or a similar leader regains power, far-right values may be solidified as the official platform of both the party and the government. Florida Governor 'Ron DeSantis' has pursued “anti-woke” policies, censoring race and LGBTQ content in school curricula. If this trend spreads federally, the United States could walk the path of democratic backsliding.

2. 'Strong Backlash and Restoration of Balance'

Younger generations and minority groups are gradually gaining political power. In the 2020 presidential election and the 2022 midterms, voter turnout in college towns and urban areas played a decisive role in Democratic victories. Issues like climate change response, gun regulation, and gender equality may drive collective action that counters far-right politics.

3. 'Persistent Polarization and Gridlock'

The most realistic scenario is continued polarization, where Democrats and Republicans alternate in power but extreme divisions remain unresolved. If the Senate, House, federal government, and state governments continue to pursue opposing agendas, the U.S. will increasingly lose policy-making capacity and waste energy on internal conflicts. This scenario entails a weakening of America’s global influence.

The strengthening of American far-right politics carries profound implications for the international order.

First, 'weakening alliances'. The Trump administration demanded increased defense spending from NATO allies and pressured South Korea to drastically raise its contribution for U.S. forces stationed there. If such trends continue, allies may have no choice but to pursue independent defense systems, creating fractures in the global security structure.

Second, 'intensifying trade and technology wars'. “America First” has been implemented as actual policy. Laws excluding China from strategic technologies such as semiconductors, batteries, and artificial intelligence (e.g., the 2022 CHIPS Act) are examples of institutionalized far-right nationalist economic policies. This trend fragments global supply chains and imposes new strategic burdens on allies like South Korea, Japan, and the EU.

Third, 'erosion of democracy’s symbolic status'. The January 6, 2021 Capitol riot shocked the world. A violent event in the “cradle of democracy” provided authoritarian regimes with propaganda claiming “democracy fails.” America’s political instability has diminished global confidence in democracy as a model.

If American far-right politics injects uncertainty into the international order, traditional allies will face the need to recalibrate their security and economic strategies.

#South Korea: From Security Dependence to Strategic Autonomy

South Korea has traditionally relied on the U.S. security umbrella. However, if a far-right U.S. government raises the possibility of withdrawing U.S. forces or demands excessive defense cost-sharing under “America First,” South Korea must strengthen its 'strategic autonomy'.

- 'Security dimension': Reinforce the Korean three-axis defense system (KAMD, KMPR, Kill Chain) and expand independent missile defense capabilities.

- 'Diplomatic dimension': Strengthen multilateral diplomacy to avoid being forced into a binary U.S.-China rivalry—for example, expanding cooperation with ASEAN and Europe.

- 'Economic dimension': Reduce dependence on the U.S. in core industries such as semiconductors and batteries, and diversify partnerships with Europe and Southeast Asia.

#Japan: Balancing Collective Security and Economic Security

Japan has already expanded its constitutional interpretation to strengthen collective self-defense and seeks to transform the U.S.-Japan alliance into a “more equal partnership.” If American far-right politics intensifies isolationism, Japan may pursue the following:

- 'Security dimension': Enhance independent military capabilities and potentially reopen discussions on nuclear armament.

- 'Diplomatic dimension': Improve relations with South Korea to deepen regional security cooperation, which could serve as a stabilizing counterbalance to U.S. uncertainty.

- 'Economic dimension': Maintain economic ties with the U.S. while reinforcing multilateral cooperation through the “Quad” with India and Australia.

#Europe: Strengthening Strategic Autonomy

Europe experienced tensions with NATO during the Trump administration. If the U.S. reverts to far-right isolationism, calls within the EU and NATO for 'strategic autonomy' will grow louder.

- 'Security dimension': Renew discussions of a “European Army,” led by France and Germany.

- 'Economic dimension': Respond to U.S. protectionism by reinforcing internal EU market cohesion and exploring limited cooperation with China.

- 'Diplomatic dimension': Assert independent voices in global governance on issues such as climate change and digital regulation, pursuing new “normative leadership” apart from the U.S.

Thus, South Korea, Japan, and Europe all share the common task of securing autonomy and strengthening multilateral cooperation amid the uncertainty brought by the rise of American far-right politics.

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Far-right politics and demagoguery in the United States are not merely domestic political phenomena but powerful currents that shake the stability of the global order. If far-right politics becomes institutionalized, the U.S. risks losing its democratic identity and global leadership. Conversely, strong pushback by younger generations and diverse communities could create a new balance. However, the most likely scenario is prolonged polarization, which will increasingly turn the U.S. into a “divided nation.”